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The Unreality of Uncertainty

Published Nov 2, 2020

• A range of possible outcomes of US elections has the markets on edge • A Biden win with a Democrat Senate still the most likely outcome – but there is no certainty • A Trump win is an improbable but possible outcome • Europe back into lockdowns – waiting for policy makers to respond…

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Is it the Blue Wave or the Next Big Short?

Published Oct 26, 2020

• US long-dated bond yields rise • Hopes for a blue wave – Biden presidency and Democrats taking the Senate • However hopes for a large fiscal package may not warrant a prolonged rise in rates • The oil sector is a stand out underperformer that may have hopes of better times • Market starts…

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Picking Over the Laggards

Published Oct 19, 2020

• Markets have a positive bias, but global growth has lost momentum • Markets still reluctant to fully discount an emphatic Biden win • A Biden win and a vaccine by the end of year could propel risk markets higher • We search through the serial laggards to see where a bounce is possible •…

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Does the Market Really Need a Vaccine?

Published Oct 13, 2020

• The markets have made progress of late despite the lack of vaccine approval • Good US service sector suggests a broadening of the recovery • Strong car sales and house purchases add to the confidence • US credit markets benefit from the better news • The risks remain – slow progress on the fiscal…

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