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It’s Only as Good as it Seems

Published Dec 1, 2020

• Markets keep faith in the prospect of a vaccine, and ongoing support from policymakers. • With equities in a euphoric mood it is worth keeping in mind some of the risks • Latest Fed minutes and Yellen at the Treasury argues for anchored long-term rates • Low mortgage rates bring vibrancy in the housing…

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Even the Turkey is Worried

Published Nov 23, 2020

• President Trump’s ongoing breaking with convention remains a risk to markets. • COVID remains a significant near-term risk to the global economy and markets. • US and Europe expected to see negative growth over the turn of the year. • Fed expected to act in December probably by keeping long rates anchored. • Value…

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Reality Holds Back the recovery

Published Nov 19, 2020

• Markets stuck between discounting the hopes for the vaccine and the reality of building COVID cases. • Economists mark back their growth forecasts for the fourth quarter. • Central bankers give every indication of remaining supportive, indeed they may even reinforce their easy monetary policies in the coming months. • In reality government bonds…

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What a Relief

Published Nov 9, 2020

• The US Presidential election saga seems to be drawing to a close. • The Fed is back in play with monetary policy likely to take up the slack from tame fiscal easing. • A lighter shade of green policies and less of a tax burden on the corporate sector than previously envisaged are the…

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