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Lessons from 2020

Published Dec 21, 2020

• Debt is not a problems unless you are small • The biggest risk to everything – inflation. • Government bonds are for risk hedging not income • US global political power may just have (really) peaked. • Policymakers may remain in denial of risks to mankind despite the warning from COVID. • North Sea…

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Credit in 2020 – the Default Tsunami that became a Ripple

Published Dec 14, 2020

• November In Q2, a colossal default wave looked to be crashing down on markets • Into 2021, default risk has been mitigated, but sectors and regions face continued issues • Absent a return to crisis mode there is still value to be found • Regional differences will persist and present threat and opportunity in…

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Published Dec 9, 2020

Global Macro and Equities As Covid19 vaccine inches closer to reality for millions of people, it feels like normalcy is back in the line of sight. One may argue that globally cases are still rising, but lower fatalities in the current wave is a respite. We are seeing signs of a return to normalcy in…

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The Wait-and-See Rally that did not Wait

Published Dec 7, 2020

• November sees significant returns to most risk assets • Leadership was outside of the US as Europe rebounded strongly • Value in energy and financials outpaces technology • High yield has a vaccine inspired rally, • EM failed to keep up the pace but should see good support November saw some extraordinary gains for…

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