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INSIGHTS THAT MATTER

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Navigating the Whiplash

Published Jul 6, 2020

As the first half of 2020 came to a close, it felt like a cliff hanger of a television series season. Escalating covid cases, continuing equity market strength, tense geopolitical equations, no-deal Brexit, brr of the printing presses – the interplay of events and response have been dizzying. Even while we come to terms with…

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Pausing for Breath

Published Jun 29, 2020

• Markets pause as COVID cases rise • We see risks to the upside balancing the near term downside risks • Economic data has generally been better than market expectations • We do not expect governments to re-impose draconian lockdowns • Policy makers to remain very supportive of their respective economies • Consumer spending is…

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COVID-19 versus the Policymakers

Published Jun 22, 2020

• COVID-19 hits new peaks as markets maintain high valuations • Engagement of policymakers leaves markets sanguine about the risks • Equites driven by liquidity and momentum not valuation • The working-off of the government debt mountain is a challenge for the future not for now COVID-19 is turning out to be just another test…

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Has the Fed Cancelled Bankruptcy?

Published Jun 15, 2020

• The Fed risks creating distorted signals with its bond support program • Hertz in bankruptcy raises equity!! • Investors increasingly have to turn to equities for income even allowing for dividend cuts • Government bond yields below equity yields and inflation “A company for carrying out an undertaking of great advantage, but nobody to…

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