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Can you Endure the Duration?

Published Mar 1, 2021

• Bonds endure a tough month. • Bond traders are sending an unambiguous signal to the Treasury that they do not see value in their paper. • US government Bond yields could go a lot higher – 6% is justified by historical precedent. • US 10 year government bond yields well above 2% look quite…

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Upgrades Everywhere

Published Feb 22, 2021

• Economists raise global GDP forecasts after a strong start to the year • Many economists add one to two percentage points to their GDP growth forecasts • Fed Chairman Powell speaks this week – will he deflect from the easy money line? • Stay long equities and be very careful with bond duration Global…

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Equities Beat Expectations

Published Feb 15, 2021

• Equity markets rise as global corporate earnings reports handsomely beat expectations. • US budget progress and an infrastructure and green budget to follow to keep markets vibrant. • COVID news from Israel promotes hope for earlier normalisation. • Better than expected US inflation data suppresses rise in US 10 year government bond yield •…

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Patchy Economic Recovery – Not to Worry

Published Feb 9, 2021

• Economic activity is patchy but in the right direction. • Inflation spike has bond yields trending higher. • Eurozone equities rally and should be helped by higher inflation. • Weaker China economic data may see equities consolidate after strong run. • Silver’s ‘Reddit run’ ended by contrived fundamentals. • Hong Kong’s ongoing relevance in…

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