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MARKET COMMENTARY

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The Fed Plays God

Apr 13, 2020

• Fed comes back to the market with a further wave of unprecedented support • A further $2.3 trillion and they may still not yet be done • The purchase of junk bonds comes with huge moral hazard • The Fed’s emergency’ action now spans over a decade • We suspect that the Fed has…

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The Key Is Keeping People Employed

Apr 7, 2020

• The markets will have to absorb poor economic data as unemployment rises sharply and activity collapses • The depth of the economic slump dependent on people retaining their jobs and SMEs staying in business • Selective bond exposure the first port of call for new investment • Emerging Markets face big risks as the…

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Muddling Through COVID-19 crisis

Apr 6, 2020

Nobel Laureate Esther Duflo a couple of days ago said that uncertainties are giving rise to uncertainties. That statement best sums up the economic environment we are in currently. Is Covid19 one quarter or a one year problem? Will we have an extended lockdown or is the end in sight? Or is a shut-start-shut the…

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Delusional

Mar 30, 2020

• Despite last week’s rally in the equity market we see risks substantially to the downside • Remember that COVID-19 has only laid bare the problems of the global economy • We see no quick and easy way out of the challenges facing the markets • Listen to the medical specialists – the virus will…

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