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Trend 9: The Finance Minister’s Gambit: Balancing Fiscal Expansion with Prudence

Investment Outlook – Trend 9, Published Mar 16, 2017

The overall FY18 budget was fairly expansionary with expenditure up 6.6% even on a high revised base in FY17. The expansionary budget notwithstanding, the Finance Minister (F.M.) pegged the fiscal deficit for FY18 at 3.2% of the GDP and remains committed to achieve 3% in FY19. Workman-like Budget Delivery The balanced fiscal prudence should likely…

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Trend 8: GST-The Good of it

Investment Outlook – Trend 8, Published Mar 16, 2017

The introduction of the goods and services tax (GST) is a long-awaited and game changing tax reform, aimed to simplify and rationalise India’s indirect tax regime. The passage of the legislation by the parliament is a major milestone on the road to the introduction of the GST. Structuring the GST The tax reform is expected…

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Trend 7: Demonetisation-Snatching a Hard Fought Victory

Investment Outlook – Trend 7, Published Mar 16, 2017

While there has been immense short term pain, the Economic Survey FY17estimates long term gain in the form of 6.75-7.5% FY18 real GDP growth. This should stem from an increase in the tax base as curbs on the estimated INR 3 lakh cr. black money (Economic Survey) are being made. Rise of the Digital Economy…

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Trend 6: The Deplorables Question the Status Quo in Europe and the U.S.

Investment Outlook – Trend 6, Published Mar 16, 2017

Rising risks from the upcoming French elections and strong rhetoric launched by the Trump administration against Germany have sparked uncertainty. Rising Geo-Political Risks We enter 2017 with increased policy uncertainty in Europe (Brexit, Italian referendum, immigrants, French and German elections), U.S. and Russia. No Good Options for Italy and the Eurozone Italians that are warned…

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